Quarantine fatigue and the tragedy of the commons
As parts of the region and country move towards "reopening," many people probably have had enough of the limitations imposed by their quarantine lives. I assume that there are people out there having surreptitious small gatherings with others outside of their household. This has to be happening to some extent, though I have no idea exactly how prevalent it is. And it's not like people would be openly trumpeting their social exploits of this nature, lest they be perceived as reckless and potentially endangering public health.
While I would like to see my friends in person again as much as anyone else, if everyone decides that they, too, are going to start socializing with people outside of their household, it potentially sets us up for a tragedy of the commons situation. In this case, the tragedy is an increased spread of the virus resulting from these gatherings.
Inevitably, at least some of these gatherings may result in virus transmission. Of course, I have no idea about the specific numbers here: what unknown portion of the unknown number of gatherings will end in more people getting sick. But it's a non-zero chance. That being the case, isn't it best to continue to err on the side of caution? We are not out of the woods yet with the pandemic and it would be careless to succumb to the illusion of thinking it is alright to ease back into our former habits too soon.
Obviously, some types of gatherings are safer than others depending on a variety of factors: indoors or outdoors? Two people or ten? Lots of close interaction, or just going for a bike ride? How much contact have the people participating in the gathering had with others who might have infected them? Yet the basic concept is the same. I personally am less paranoid about shopping in a grocery store, given that it isn't too crowded and I am able to stay away from others. Your contact with other people in that environment is fleeting and masks are required.
Overconfidence about the relative risk of these gatherings and desire to see our friends after over two months can lull us into a false sense of security and a feeling that it's okay to be doing these things, even though maybe we actually shouldn't. People are probably thinking "I know these people, it'll be fine..." In some (or even many?) cases, this may be true. But there have to be some cases where that isn't the case, and the virus spreads more than it would have if people continued to strictly refrain from in-person socializing outside their household. The more people who socialize in-person with non-household members, the more potential there is for infections to spread: a tragedy of the commons.
I would like to see my friends again as much as anyone else does. But on principle, I feel that I shouldn't give in to the temptation to go out and do that quite yet, even though the objective risk to myself or the people I might visit seems relatively low (we have not been regularly exposing ourselves to situations where we might be likely to contract the virus). I wouldn't want others to gather with their friends and end up infecting each other, which will cause setbacks in overcoming the pandemic. Hence, I should prolong my indefinite isolation at home, as draining as it may be.
Assuming that other people are surreptitiously visiting their friends to some extent, even though maybe they shouldn't be doing so, adds to the sense of deprivation -- if all these other people are presumably doing it, why not let myself indulge in that pleasure as well? It's as if these visits are a delicious forbidden fruit and here I am, relegating myself to eating cereal. I assume there's a low risk of spreading infection if I were to visit a friend, but that's probably what everyone else assumes as well, and in at least some of those cases, they will be wrong.
I don't blame people for wanting to visit their friends. It can be rough being stuck at home all the time for over two months and I'm sure many are hoping for a bit of respite. Yet at this point, when we still don't have the pandemic fully under control, it seems dangerously precarious to begin surreptitiously loosening quarantine restrictions on social gatherings.
While I would like to see my friends in person again as much as anyone else, if everyone decides that they, too, are going to start socializing with people outside of their household, it potentially sets us up for a tragedy of the commons situation. In this case, the tragedy is an increased spread of the virus resulting from these gatherings.
Inevitably, at least some of these gatherings may result in virus transmission. Of course, I have no idea about the specific numbers here: what unknown portion of the unknown number of gatherings will end in more people getting sick. But it's a non-zero chance. That being the case, isn't it best to continue to err on the side of caution? We are not out of the woods yet with the pandemic and it would be careless to succumb to the illusion of thinking it is alright to ease back into our former habits too soon.
Obviously, some types of gatherings are safer than others depending on a variety of factors: indoors or outdoors? Two people or ten? Lots of close interaction, or just going for a bike ride? How much contact have the people participating in the gathering had with others who might have infected them? Yet the basic concept is the same. I personally am less paranoid about shopping in a grocery store, given that it isn't too crowded and I am able to stay away from others. Your contact with other people in that environment is fleeting and masks are required.
Overconfidence about the relative risk of these gatherings and desire to see our friends after over two months can lull us into a false sense of security and a feeling that it's okay to be doing these things, even though maybe we actually shouldn't. People are probably thinking "I know these people, it'll be fine..." In some (or even many?) cases, this may be true. But there have to be some cases where that isn't the case, and the virus spreads more than it would have if people continued to strictly refrain from in-person socializing outside their household. The more people who socialize in-person with non-household members, the more potential there is for infections to spread: a tragedy of the commons.
I would like to see my friends again as much as anyone else does. But on principle, I feel that I shouldn't give in to the temptation to go out and do that quite yet, even though the objective risk to myself or the people I might visit seems relatively low (we have not been regularly exposing ourselves to situations where we might be likely to contract the virus). I wouldn't want others to gather with their friends and end up infecting each other, which will cause setbacks in overcoming the pandemic. Hence, I should prolong my indefinite isolation at home, as draining as it may be.
Assuming that other people are surreptitiously visiting their friends to some extent, even though maybe they shouldn't be doing so, adds to the sense of deprivation -- if all these other people are presumably doing it, why not let myself indulge in that pleasure as well? It's as if these visits are a delicious forbidden fruit and here I am, relegating myself to eating cereal. I assume there's a low risk of spreading infection if I were to visit a friend, but that's probably what everyone else assumes as well, and in at least some of those cases, they will be wrong.
I don't blame people for wanting to visit their friends. It can be rough being stuck at home all the time for over two months and I'm sure many are hoping for a bit of respite. Yet at this point, when we still don't have the pandemic fully under control, it seems dangerously precarious to begin surreptitiously loosening quarantine restrictions on social gatherings.
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